Winning Cautious Holiday Shoppers This Season in Economic Uncertainty

Every year, as the holiday season approaches, anticipation and uncertainty settle over marketers. It’s about the latest trends, consumer moods, and how to best connect with your audience. But 2025 feels different. The economic climate is challenging and making marketers’ jobs more complex as you aim to drive sales and grow your brand.

Consumers are growing more cautious with their spending as 68% of Americans expect the economy to worsen in the next 6-12 months. Three-quarters of adults intend to rethink their purchases, with six in ten planning cuts of 6% or more, while only one in ten plans to increase spending.

At the same time, many marketers are working with leaner budgets and facing stiffer competition. It’s a stressful combination. I’ve navigated the ups and downs of digital marketing, and I can tell you that success this holiday season won’t come from bigger budgets. It will come from smarter strategies. It’s about understanding the new consumer mindset and connecting with them in a way that builds lasting trust, not just a short-lived sale.

Understanding the New Consumer Mindset

We have to accept that consumer behavior has fundamentally shifted. The habits formed during the pandemic—more time spent alone, a heavy reliance on digital tools, and a search for deeper value—are not going away. In fact, consumer sentiment is lower than it was even in 2020. People are worried about rising prices and overall inflation, and this anxiety directly impacts how they shop.

It’s a mistake to think that economic pressure makes consumers irrational. Instead, it makes them more deliberate. They are making trade-offs, choosing to spend less in one area to afford a meaningful investment in another. Your job is to understand where your brand fits into this new equation. You need to connect with the people who see your products as the worthwhile “trade-up,” not the ones looking to “trade-down” in your category.

Today’s shoppers are spending more time alone and online, but they are also increasingly wary of social media as a trusted source for purchase decisions. They are turning to local markets and, most importantly, they are demanding real value. This doesn’t just mean a low price; it means a fair price for a product that delivers on its promises.

Also Read: Keep Calm and Advertise On: Why Brands Should Continue Advertising During Times of Economic Uncertainty

Meeting Higher Expectations: Earning Consumer Confidence

According to recent data, consumer spending is expected to decline by 5% this holiday season compared to last year. The reason is simple: higher living costs. This makes one priority crystal clear for marketers: value. You must clearly communicate why your products are worth the investment. Consumers are actively comparing prices, hunting for deals, and using every tool at their disposal—from coupon sites to in-store smartphone searches-to feel confident they’re getting the best deal.

This confidence is key. Shoppers are scrutinizing both essential and non-essential purchases, looking for strong reviews, proven durability, and long-term quality relative to the cost. But even a great product at a great price will fail if it’s not easy to buy. Convenience often plays a big role in encouraging customers to follow through with their purchase. Flexible payment options, clear and honest return policies, and fast, accessible delivery can make the difference between a completed sale and an abandoned cart.

Now, let’s talk about shipping. Nothing sours a great shopping experience faster than an unexpected shipping fee at checkout. In 2025, 66% of consumers expect free shipping on all orders, 90% cite it as their top reason for shopping online, and 58% add items to their cart to qualify for free shipping. If you can, offer free shipping during the holiday season. Make it a central part of your advertising. It’s a powerful incentive that builds goodwill and removes a major barrier to purchase.

Smarter Strategies for a Leaner Budget

With tighter budgets, the initial response is often to pull back on marketing spend, but that’s a mistake. Instead of cutting back, you need to optimize. This means focusing your efforts where they will have the greatest impact.

Focus on High-ROI Channels and Performance

This is the time to lean into what works. Prioritize channels and campaigns that have a proven track record of driving results. An audience-first approach is critical. Use your first-party data to create custom audience segments of people who are already engaging with you or researching your competitors. Retargeting these interested leads is one of the most cost-effective ways to nurture them toward a purchase.

Embrace an Omnichannel Approach

Your customers don’t live on a single channel, so neither should your marketing. A smart omnichannel strategy ensures your message is consistent and present wherever your audience is—from connected TV (CTV) and online video to display ads and audio. By measuring the impact of every dollar spent, you can quickly identify what isn’t working and shift your budget to more effective tactics.

Start Early and Build Momentum

The 2025 holiday season is short, with only 28 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Shoppers are starting their research earlier than ever. Now is the time to plan, test your creative, and build awareness. By the time Black Friday arrives, you should be ready to scale your most successful campaigns.

Making the Most of Each Platform This Season

While a unified strategy is essential, execution needs to be tailored to each platform.

Data-Driven Scale on TTD

One particularly effective approach is leveraging programmatic advertising and omnichannel tactics, especially through platforms like The Trade Desk (TTD). With TTD, you can reach your audience across CTV, display, audio, and video channels, maximizing your budget across the pre-holiday, peak, and post-holiday periods. The data-driven nature of TTD allows you to target the right segments, run A/B testing on creatives, and adjust campaigns on the fly so that your brand message stays relevant as shopping behaviors shift throughout the season. Refine your TTD strategy by using retail shopper graphs plus a measured CTV frequency cap to boost precision and limit repeat impressions.

Winning on Google

Today’s consumers are researchers. They use Google Search and YouTube to de-risk their purchases, seeking confidence in a product’s quality and longevity. To win them over, you need to deliver on their “New Value Equation”: the right price, deep product confidence, and a seamless purchase experience. Make sure your product pages have descriptive titles, high-resolution images, and clear highlights of what makes them unique.

Use Google’s AI-powered solutions to meet shoppers where they research and buy. Performance Max (PMax) can help you reach high-intent audiences across Google’s network, while YouTube video campaigns build familiarity and trust as people compare options. Optimize your approach by running PMax alongside systematic YouTube creative tests to identify your best angles and improve quickly.

Connecting on TikTok

TikTok is a powerhouse for discovery, but a seamless experience is a must. Use the platform’s AI-powered campaign tools to place your ads in front of the right viewers. Focus on creating authentic, high-quality content that feels native to the platform. And pay close attention to the data. TikTok’s analytics provide real-time insights that can help you guide and refine your campaign for better results. Improve your tactics on TikTok by testing three opening-variant assets and enabling Shop checkout to reduce friction and boost conversions.

Phases for Peak-Season Wins

A successful peak season depends on a clear, three-phase operating plan that moves from initial testing to disciplined scaling and post-peak growth. Begin with a pre-peak phase by testing and seeding audiences to identify what works best. During the peak period, double down on top-performing campaigns-but set clear limits to keep spending efficient. After the peak, focus on retargeting gift-card recipients and boosting long-term value through ongoing engagement.

How To Measure Success

Solid measurement is essential. Define true impact with geo-targeting and baseline control groups so you can separate real lift from noise. Set a primary KPI for each channel-whether that’s new-to-brand acquisition, customer acquisition cost (CAC), or lifetime value (LTV)—and establish clear budget-shift triggers tied to live performance. Start by reviewing platform reports and layering them with ecommerce sales data from tools like Shopify, BigCommerce, or WooCommerce. Then interrogate the journey and contribution: How long does it take a customer to move from first impression to purchase? What is each platform’s share of revenue? How many exposures typically precede conversion, and when does frequency tip into waste? Turning these answers into decisions will sharpen your campaigns, strengthen retargeting, and upgrade your overall approach.

Setting Yourself Up for Post-Holiday Season Success

The holiday rush will eventually end, but your work isn’t done. The data and insights you gather are invaluable for planning your Q1 strategy. Use this information to retarget gift card recipients, promote accessories for holiday purchases, and convert new customers into loyal fans. Remember, a return doesn’t have to be a loss; offer an exchange or an upgrade to turn a potential negative into a positive experience.

The 2025 holiday season will undoubtedly be a test. But within these challenges lie incredible opportunities to forge stronger, more authentic connections with your customers. By focusing on value, building trust, and adapting your strategies with intelligence and creativity, you can create experiences that resonate and drive meaningful results. It’s not just about getting through the season; it’s about building a more resilient brand for the year ahead.